The Stock Market

[JohnnyFlake]

Originally Posted by mugen910

So none of this has ever happened before? I'm very curious as to the whole dilemma...I have very basic knowledge of economics and am wondering if it's just one of those cycles that the USA goes through every 2-3 decades. Do you think researching the 70's will help me determine what would be a good investment in the current situation?

IMHO, this is the first ever, of this type of scenario, at least within the last 30 years or so. However, I am not a historian, nor am I an expert in economics or the stock market, in anyway! It's simply, what I call, a common sense analysis of the facts I gather, while I watch the world news programing and CNBC. Let me emphasis "gather facts", then do your own analysis. Do not listen to and/or block out, if you can, the analysis of the so called stock market experts and especially the news media. IMHO, most of them are F---ing Idiots! Hell, most of them still don't believe we'll actually fall into a recession. Wake up people, we are there!!!

The housing situation is the worst that it's been, as far back as I can remember, and I'm 66 years old. The financial Market is even worst. However, the really problem that is driving this market is oil! The newly created demands from Japan and even more so from China, and our (USA) constantly growing demand, simply cannot be met! There is no immediate solution!!! If they ever decide to start drilling again, and that is the only real answer, it will still take 6 to 8 years before the new wells will be productive and refineries can be built! The above is simply in reference to the production of fuel, it has nothing to do with the need for the petroleum that is needed to produce 60% to 70% of the staple products we use every day of our lives.

[WyoBob]

Originally Posted by JohnnyFlake

There is no immediate solution!!! If they ever decide to start drilling again, and that is the only real answer, it will still take 6 to 8 years before the new wells will be productive and refineries can be built! The above is simply in reference to the production of fuel, it has nothing to do with the need for the petroleum that is needed to produce 60% to 70% of the staple products we use every day of our lives.

If only we had political leader's and citizen's with the will to do something. We had a preview of what can happen in the oil market 30 some years ago and nothing was done. We could be independent of OPEC and the members of the "House of Saud" would be back to herding camels in the desert had our gutless leader's called for sacrifce, innovation and hard work the last time the Arabs held us hostage. Weak willed politicians, afraid of not getting re-elected wouldn't make the hard decisions needed to wean us from the cartel.

During WW ll, we didn't have weapons of war. We were caught flat-footed. Quickly, manufacturer's switched to manufacturing airplanes, tanks, jeeps, artillary, etc. The citizens rallied to the cause. They would have, again, after 9-11 had we had any real leadership. We could still do it but, the rich don't care where gasoline prices go and the poor and middle class don't have much choice in what to do or any ability to cause any change.

Anyway, "You're doing a heck of a job, Bushie."

I hope to live long enough to see the day when we can tell the sheiks to "go pound sand" as we have no need of them anymore.

But, things are looking up. I've had a few beers, I'm listening to Slacker Radio and am smoking a RP Churchill Fusion MM from the CI RP Dbl Madruo Mega Sampler deal right off the truck. I can't stay grumpy too long at this rate

WyoBob

[cvm4]

Besides housing troubles, there's a big re-pricing of financial assets due to the overwhelming run that commodities is on. Greater input costs (wheat, oil, corn, etc.) means that there isn't as much money to spread around to investors when earnings are reported. And that also hinders growth that these companies need. I expect a big rise in prices as these costs are passed on to consumers.

[JohnnyFlake]

Originally Posted by WyoBob

If only we had political leader's and citizen's with the will to do something. We had a preview of what can happen in the oil market 30 some years ago and nothing was done. We could be independent of OPEC and the members of the "House of Saud" would be back to herding camels in the desert had our gutless leader's called for sacrifice, innovation and hard work the last time the Arabs held us hostage. Weak willed politicians, afraid of not getting re-elected wouldn't make the hard decisions needed to wean us from the cartel.

During WW ll, we didn't have weapons of war. We were caught flat-footed. Quickly, manufacturer's switched to manufacturing airplanes, tanks, jeeps, artillery, etc. The citizens rallied to the cause. They would have, again, after 9-11 had we had any real leadership. We could still do it but, the rich don't care where gasoline prices go and the poor and middle class don't have much choice in what to do or any ability to cause any change.

Anyway, "You're doing a heck of a job, Bushie."

I hope to live long enough to see the day when we can tell the sheiks to "go pound sand" as we have no need of them anymore.

But, things are looking up. I've had a few beers, I'm listening to Slacker Radio and am smoking a RP Churchill Fusion MM from the CI RP Dbl Maduro Mega Sampler deal right off the truck. I can't stay grumpy too long at this rate

WyoBob

Hey Bob,

Don't hold back my friend. I mean there's no reason to tip toe around, just tell it like you see it!!!

I just love it, and I agree 110%. Actually, I see no reason for not just going into the "Land of Saud" right now, and taking it over! Offer Russia half of the pie, and who in the hell is going to stop us?

Johnny

[JohnnyFlake]

Mugen910
Do you think researching the 70's will help me determine what would be a good investment in the current situation?

MadAl
Really interested in what you think about Disney, bought shares about 10 years ago, still hasn't gotten back to the level I purchased at ($36/share).


Hey MadAl,
I am sorry, but I cannot give you any in site into the world of "Disney". I have never liked any form of resort and/or entertainment stocks. By that I mean Disney, Harrah's, MGM, Cruise Lines, Red Flag and so on!

Mugen910,
I honestly believe that researching the 70's, 80's or whatever, will help in anyway. IMHO, you need to research what's going on now and maybe 3 to 5 years back at most! That's just me, others may suggest differently. I usually don't like to give advise with respect to investing in stocks, mostly because I don't want nor do I listen to advise from others about investing in stocks. I make my own choices, based on my own research, if and when it satisfies me.

What I will do, is suggest a simple system (yes system) that has worked very well for me over the years. For me, it has always done well in a down market, such as we are now faced with. The problem for me, when the market is down, is having available cash to make buys with. Many times in the past, I was not prepared, with cash on hand. However, there were a number of times that I was, and I did very well, on each of those occasions. On this occasion, I had the for-site to sell off a number of my holding, that had become stagnant, a few months back and I am holding a nice amount of cash. In fact I made several purchases today.

My system is very simple. I look for long time staple/strong stocks. The ones that have been around a long time, and are a staple force in the stock market. In addition, they must be stocks that pay a reasonable dividend. Find ones that you like, make sure you really like them, then check out their performance over the last 52 weeks. If the price they have come down to, is at least 30%, or more, less than their 52 week high, there is a very strong chance that I'll buy some. I'll give two as samples of what I mean and that I bought today - General Motors and General Electric! When the market comes back, the staple stocks are usually the first to recover.

Johnny

[mugen910]

Johnny,
I can fully understand wanting to take on GE but why GM? In my little research of them I can't imagine picking them up considering how slow they were to make sure they were front runners in the car market.
To be honest I don't have any $$ to be investing in anything since I'm just starting a career now but I enjoy watching and learning how companies grow and emerge from turmoil. Having cash on hand to be able to purchase things is great advice. I just wished I had started learning all this stuff when I was younger.
Do you consider day trading something that is feasible in this type of economy? Even playing around with fake $$ and online accounts I've been fairy lucky but the idea on transferring that luck may not be the brightest idea.
Going back to the original topic; researching the 70's and 80's during the oil crisis and the times of mortgage companies requiring a minimum of 10% down, can that be equivalent of what is going on now? Someone during those times made the right investments and made a decent nest egg...I'd like to learn how to do the same from some of the triggers of that cycle.


Bao

[JohnnyFlake]

Originally Posted by mugen910

Johnny,
I can fully understand wanting to take on GE but why GM? In my little research of them I can't imagine picking them up considering how slow they were to make sure they were front runners in the car market.
To be honest I don't have any $$ to be investing in anything since I'm just starting a career now but I enjoy watching and learning how companies grow and emerge from turmoil. Having cash on hand to be able to purchase things is great advice. I just wished I had started learning all this stuff when I was younger.
Do you consider day trading something that is feasible in this type of economy? Even playing around with fake $$ and online accounts I've been fairy lucky but the idea on transferring that luck may not be the brightest idea.
Going back to the original topic; researching the 70's and 80's during the oil crisis and the times of mortgage companies requiring a minimum of 10% down, can that be equivalent of what is going on now? Someone during those times made the right investments and made a decent nest egg...I'd like to learn how to do the same from some of the triggers of that cycle.

Bao

For me, GM is a common sense, no brainer, with respect to growth and good dividends, in the near, as well as, long term future! They're the biggest us auto maker, and they ain't going bye bye! Their 52 week high was $43.20 and it's now selling for $11.55 around 70% down from their 52 week high. I am pissed today, as I thought I had bought 500 shares yesterday at $11.49 but I some how missed it. I'll have to wait until Monday to decide what I want to do. I want to buy 500 share at $12.00 or less. Then I'll see what it does. If it should go down anymore and reach $10.00 or less, I'll buy another 500 shares. If not, I'll just sit on the 500 shares at $12.00 or less, for the future.

Research what happened with Chrysler back in the 70's. GM is certainly a different story but the result should be the same. The same is even more applicable to Ford. I like Ford a lot, especially at $5.00, so I bought some of them as well. I did get that buy in!

Yes, those that made the right investments in the 70's and 80's made nice scores, but that's always true with any down market. Oil and housing were a problem back then, however, the reasons driving the problems with oil and housing now, are more complex than back then.

Johnny

[cvm4]

Ummm, hi guys

Great day today, huh?

[larryinlc]

I'm glad I'm not the only one sitting on cash. My Ameritrade broker called twice in the past two weeks trying to get me to buy! buy!. I said no thanks. She said, you and many other account holders.

It's ugly out there, but it's not like we didn't see this coming.

Finance: The fine art of exchanging currency from hand to hand until it disappears.

Larry

[JordanWexler]

oh yea...great.
watched my retirement fund tank today.

[DonnieW]

Holy Cow! Gold up almost $100 in 24hrs.

This is proof-positive that many people are looking past investing in banks/financial institutions in favor of good old gold.