The Stock Market

[RUJohnny99]

Originally Posted by TheEconomist

Looking to make my monthly investments come May 1st,

Anybody have any ideas for some nice long term (5-10+ years), Dividend paying companies?

I'm pretty negative when it comes to the market/economy as a whole for the next 5-10 years. My first thought would be one of the big oil companies (XOM, CVX, RDS). They're making money hand over fist, and I don't see energy prices coming down anytime soon. There could be meddling from a new president next year, but they're not overly expensive which means the market is pricing in the risk.

Another company that should do well is KO. They earn about 2/3rds of their profits overseas, so currency translations should benefit them. They announced a 21% increase in revenue in the first quarter, 9% of that was due to currency gains. The stock literally hasn't moved in 10 years, but had explosive growth in the 80s/early 90s when the dollar fell against other currencies.

[JordanWexler]

I sure hope you got out of Intel Economist....
Chip makers are totally getting owned...

[TheEconomist]

Originally Posted by RUJohnny99

I'm pretty negative when it comes to the market/economy as a whole for the next 5-10 years. My first thought would be one of the big oil companies (XOM, CVX, RDS). They're making money hand over fist, and I don't see energy prices coming down anytime soon. There could be meddling from a new president next year, but they're not overly expensive which means the market is pricing in the risk.

Another company that should do well is KO. They earn about 2/3rds of their profits overseas, so currency translations should benefit them. They announced a 21% increase in revenue in the first quarter, 9% of that was due to currency gains. The stock literally hasn't moved in 10 years, but had explosive growth in the 80s/early 90s when the dollar fell against other currencies.

For sure, I went to belgium to study last summer, and visited a few banks and whatnot in france and netherlands, and coke is gigantic over there.
I am seriously considering it.. That makes a lotta sense.

One concern- long term growth...companies like pepsico, making pepsi, has far more potential for market growth, while coke is now fairly saturated throughout europe and america. But right now I definitely would have to agree. Oh, and I almost forgot, asia! I guess they still have a few billion over there open to coke..I'll do some more research and I just might pull the trigger.



my outlook on the next 5 years isn't so doom and gloom, as long as the fed can stop cutting rates, allow the recession to correct itself instead of drawing it out, battle the falling dollar, and fight tooth and nail whatever ugly inflation comes our way, i think we should be okay. I guess we need bernanke out..

[AAlmeter]

Originally Posted by TheEconomist

Looking to make my monthly investments come May 1st,

Anybody have any ideas for some nice long term (5-10+ years), Dividend paying companies?

UST and VZ make up a good amount of my long term positions.

[TheEconomist]

Originally Posted by JordanWexler

I sure hope you got out of Intel Economist....
Chip makers are totally getting owned...

I'm confident with intel.. and I'll be holding it until something changes my mind. Technology is the key to the future!

What sucks is AMD and all of these other smaller companies are coming up and creating a stir.

But I definately still think that Intel is a worthy long terminvestment

Drip and a hefty 2.5% dividend! And it has shown okay performance over the past 3 months. better than most! Its global presence and recent "trend domination" in the way they became the standards in Mac's have shown big upsides without much down. The fact that it is one of the biggest companies in the world and by far the biggest in its industry will be great for stability and smoother sailing, while the fact that it is exclusively in one of the most trendy companies now, which hasn't broken into the global scene yet (market share for mac computers outside of the us is not even worth mentioning) , shows unbelievable growth potential, but not dependent on that potential.

I dunno, my little "subjective" analysis there.


What are your views on AT&T? (T) Just read that they are top 20 biggest companies in the world, and what sucks is they report tomorrow, so I probably missed it, but I think with how fast AT&T is growing could be great (or terrible since a lot of people hate em) for the long term.

again, keep a 10 year term in mind.

[TheEconomist]

Originally Posted by AAlmeter

UST and VZ make up a good amount of my long term positions.

Not all too familiar with UST. What made you chose UST out of curiosity?

[TheEconomist]

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...e-numbers.aspx

To Nokia's Defense!

[cvm4]

I'm not sure how correlated your want your portfolio with financials, but USB has kept its nose clean through the credit crisis and so far hasn't been rewarded for it. The P/E is in line with the market and the Beta is below the market. And it has a 5% dividend yield.

Longterm I'd look at the big multi-national companies.

[TheEconomist]

Originally Posted by cvm4

I'm not sure how correlated your want your portfolio with financials, but USB has kept its nose clean through the credit crisis and so far hasn't been rewarded for it. The P/E is in line with the market and the Beta is below the market. And it has a 5% dividend yield.

Longterm I'd look at the big multi-national companies.

Thanks for the recomendation! I just bought a modest 5 shares of USB (hey, I'm a poor college student) after doing some research. Luckily, by the time I was done researching and ready to pull the trigger, the market bombed and I had an alright buying opportunity given USB's recent statements.

Quarterly Drip with a 5+% Div!!! Nutz!!

[cvm4]

It definitely has my attention. I haven't bought any yet

[AAlmeter]

Originally Posted by TheEconomist

Not all too familiar with UST. What made you chose UST out of curiosity?

A product thats always in demand, diversified holdings, good yield, good P/E, and growth in the domestic market...rare for a tobacco company. Its carried me through with 5-6% gains over the last 6 months (plus dividends). Not bad for a "the sky is falling" market.

[TheEconomist]

Originally Posted by AAlmeter

A product thats always in demand, diversified holdings, good yield, good P/E, and growth in the domestic market...rare for a tobacco company. Its carried me through with 5-6% gains over the last 6 months (plus dividends). Not bad for a "the sky is falling" market.

doin a little research here,

UST has outperformed the S&P here by over 5% in the past 6 months (not including divs). (but still is at a little less than a 3% loss.) ( However, those dividends are DARN NICE, and the 4.8% div would overcome its loss easily by the end of the year if the market steadies a bit), and I think this can be explained due to the "addictiveness" of their main product lines, which is great for recessions

looks like its strong points are its profitability (dayum! profit margins are gigantic compared to industry! 27%?!?!?!?). Has great operating margins, asset utilization, debt to cashflow ratio, and price to sales ratio.

Here is a little blurp I found while doing my research from an article called WWBB (What would Buffet Buy) on the most reliable site out there (haha) Motley fool

"UST (NYSE: UST)
UST holds claim to about three-quarters of the smokeless-tobacco market, as well as an assortment of fine wines. UST is the epitome of a cash flow king, cranking out enough dough to return nearly $2 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and shareholder buybacks in just the last three years. With a current market cap of just $8 billion, that's some pretty impressive stuff. It's paid a dividend every year since 1912, raised that payment in every year but one since 1965, and currently fetches a fat 4.7% yield. Buffett loves that kind of predictability. And at just 14 times next year's earnings, you don't have to pay an arm and a leg for a sound night's sleep.

The market dominance UST holds is invaluable, and is just the kind of stuff Buffett looks for. With 186 years of experience in an industry that rarely changes, it's unlikely anyone will encroach on its territory anytime soon."


Very interesting.

For some reason, it appears many analysts are a bit cautious on it.

I see a few negatives here, which seem to contradict what is listed above.

UST's price to book (stock price/(total assets-intangible assets & Liabilities)) isn't good compared to the industry, Their PE ratio is actually higher than the industry(although not much), Price to sales is higher than the industry, Price to cashflow is higher than the industry(which actually shocks me), their quick ratio is lower than the industry(again, by not much)

But what troubles me the most are their efficiency measures, where inventory turnover is substantially lower than the industry, sector, and the S&P Average.

My take, which may not be accurate due to my limited research, is that their profit margins are so huge, but their efficiency so poor is due to the fact that there is a lack of innovation. They aren't reinvesting back into their product lines, but rather paying back to their investors (which can be a good or a bad thing depending on the situation. Therefore, I get the feeling they are kind of "coasting", and not showing much long term growth potential. This is supported by their 5 year average growth (sales) of 3% while the industry boasts nearly 8%.

But I can see where it would be outstanding in a recession. That dividend, being one of the longest and most historied dividend paying stocks out there, is darn sexy during economic downturns.

I'll keep an eye on this bugger. It reports on the 27th, and I think depending on how it reports, could change my image of it.

[TheEconomist]

To show my appreciation, If anyone brings my attention to something that directly leads me to a purchase, I'll send ya a little something to show my gratitude!

So CVM4 (USB) and RUJohnny99(for previous invaluable advice), pm me your Addresses and I'll get something sent to you soon!

(I tried to make it a surprise but I guess I don't qualify for the ms. Floydp listings because i don't have 2 of the 3 qualifications met)

[cvm4]

UST looked a little overpriced to me.

I think Altria, MO, would be a better alternative. But, I wouldn't invest until I see their guidance since after the spin-off (For dividends, earnings, other fundamentals). * I haven't looked it up.

[AAlmeter]

Originally Posted by cvm4

UST looked a little overpriced to me.

I think Altria, MO, would be a better alternative. But, I wouldn't invest until I see their guidance since after the spin-off (For dividends, earnings, other fundamentals). * I haven't looked it up.

PM and MO report tomorrow and Thurs...if I recall.

I have positions in both, but I still like my UST. I see UST's sales growing or at the very least remaining constant unlike MO's. On top of that, they are less exposed to legal



UST is similar to MO in its shareholder friendly stance. They sell an addictive product that is marketed AGAINST pretty heavily in this country. Im not expecting to see massive growth.

Now...for massive growth...see central sun mining (SMC, formerly GLE Glencaire gold). That one has been a fun ride for me since last November