Need help with math problem...

[gjcab09]

So my daughter brings home a permission slip from school in need of a signature, so she can attend a "Good Touch/Bad Touch" safety program in school. Good Idea, so I start reading the slip and this is a direct quote from it:

"Unfortunately one out of three little girls, and one out of five little boys is sexually abused in our country"

That got me thinking about the numbers they're using. One in three is 33 1/3%...that's a BIG flippin' number for this kind of thing, and I'm sorry but I just don't believe it. So I get online, and I find this, from the US Dept of Health and Human Services:

"Rate of sexual abuse by gender:
1.7 victims per 1,000 female children
0.4 victims per 1,000 male children."

Child Abuse Research and Statistics

or 0.17% and 0.04% respectively. That sounds alot more realistic to me, so I'm going to question the school on their statistics, where they got them, how they justify their numbers, what they hope to accomplish by putting out such skewed numbers, how many other faulty statistics they're using to influence our children in their special programs, and etc. What I need to know is what is the percentage of the increase between 0.17% and 33.3% and how do you figure that out? I used to know, but not today I guess lol.

Thanks for the help,

[Cypress]

Even the link you posted has old data that is 9 years old. You might want to find data that is at most 2 years old.

[Cypress]

They must have gotten their data from this site Childhood Sexual Abuse and even then its old data.

EDIT: and this site too http://www.darkness2light.org/KnowAb...atistics_2.asp

But it goes further to say that its before they reach 18 is how they base their statistic.

[commonsenseman]

Ok so I believe you first subtract .17 from 33.3 to find the difference which is 33.13

Then you divide 33.13 by the original percentage .17, this gives you 194.88

So if my calculations are correct their number is off by 19,488%

[Cypress]

Originally Posted by commonsenseman

Ok so I believe you first subtract .17 from 33.3 to find the difference which is 33.13

Then you divide 33.13 by the original percentage .17, this gives you 194.88

So if my calculations are correct their number is off by 19,488%

Look at my two previous posts. Seems numbers can be worked to fit a need.

Stats per year are different from stats for the lifetime of a child to 18.

[commonsenseman]

Originally Posted by Cypress

Look at my two previous posts. Seems numbers can be worked to fit a need.

Stats per year are different from stats for the lifetime of a child to 18.

Ya sorry about that sam, I was just doing the calculations for him.

I was working on it while you posted the first two times.

Dunno which stat to believe now.....

[gjcab09]

Good Idea, I know that on these type of studies it's often difficult to find really current results, though...especially where government agencies are concerned. Still, I'm a father of a daughter. I know how protective I am and can't believe that that kind of thing is going on in 1 out of 3 households with children in this country. And, 0.17% to 33.3% is an unbelievable increase even over such a time frame, add to that, for what it's worth, data from the same source suggesting that incidents of child sexual abuse was declining at that time.

"The comparative annual rate of child victims:
decreased steadily from 15.3 victims per 1,000 children in 1993
to 11.8 victims per 1,000 children in 1999;
then increased to 12.2 per 1,000 children in 2000.
Whether this is a trend cannot be determined until additional data are collected."

Parents out there, or even non-parents who have children in their family, think about the crime...do you actually think that 1 out of the 2 people standing next to you with the same circumstances find it any less offensive or horrifying than you do? There is the occasional pervert out there, and our kids should be taught how to be aware and keep themselves as safe as possible, but don't indoctrinate them that such a huge percentage of American families engage in such horrifying and deviant behavior.

What could be the purpose of this? To what end does an educational institution make such (to my 9 year old data) wildly inaccurate claims?

[Cypress]

Originally Posted by gjcab09

What could be the purpose of this? To what end does an educational institution make such (to my 9 year old data) wildly inaccurate claims?

The claims are only as accurate as the data that is fed to them. Look at the links i posted on my second post. I think often times data is estimated as quite often cased go unreported.

[gjcab09]

Originally Posted by commonsenseman

Ok so I believe you first subtract .17 from 33.3 to find the difference which is 33.13

Then you divide 33.13 by the original percentage .17, this gives you 194.88

So if my calculations are correct their number is off by 19,488%

Thanks Jeff, that's the number I was coming up with too, but it just seemed so bizarre that I couldn't trust my calc's.

Granted, stats are used to mislead as often as they are for any truthful purpose. It's a continuing pet peeve of mine. I'll research more over the weekend, I don't want to go off on people that essentially are, I believe, trying to do something good. But 1/3 of little girls and 1/5 of little boys? Still not buying it.

[gjcab09]

Originally Posted by Cypress

The claims are only as accurate as the data that is fed to them. Look at the links i posted on my second post. I think often times data is estimated as quite often cased go unreported.

Agreed, I just can't accept the estimations as realistic, that's why I went with the substantiated data in my original post.

[Rodeo]

I'm the father of 2 girls, and I don't find the numbers that hard to believe. First, I think you are assuming the most serious and abhorrent kind of abuse, but the stats likely cover any kind of unwanted touching. A 17 year old whose boyfriend doesn't stop when she says stop is probably counted (and should be). So it’s not just dirty old men hanging around schoolyards. It’s any of the unwanted sexual advances our daughters will face before turning 18.

Second, I think if you talk to the women in your life, you will find that a good percentage of them will tell you of unwanted sexual touching from someone before she turned 18.

All of us that have daughters should be aware of this and do everything we can to protect our children.

[gjcab09]

Originally Posted by Rodeo

I'm the father of 2 girls, and I don't find the numbers that hard to believe. First, I think you are assuming the most serious and abhorrent kind of abuse, but the stats likely cover any kind of unwanted touching. A 17 year old whose boyfriend doesn't stop when she says stop is probably counted (and should be). So it’s not just dirty old men hanging around schoolyards. It’s any of the unwanted sexual advances our daughters will face before turning 18.

Second, I think if you talk to the women in your life, you will find that a good percentage of them will tell you of unwanted sexual touching from someone before she turned 18.

All of us that have daughters should be aware of this and do everything we can to protect our children.

Thanks Stephen, I agree with your points.

I think I'm just a bit hung-up on the word "abuse" and the frequency with which it's alleged. I'm a bit offended by it, actually, I'm tired of elected officials, public servants and school officials inferring or stating outright that American parents don't care about their kids, molest their kids, are incapable of taking care of their kids, can't seem to feed their kids if they have to stay home from school, and on and on, ad infinitum. My daughter is my life, period. I'll do everything I can to prepare her for the realities of life, so she'll know how to protect herself when I can't be there to protect her myself. I appreciate the school helping out in defining the limits of appropriate behavior, but don't instill an unnatural and, in the vast majority, unwarranted fear of her family and her fellow human beings while so doing. Don't try to make the State the "go to" guy for safety and security...she's safe and loved and protected at home, among her family and friends.

There, done with my rant.

[Cletus]

My favorite quotes about statistics:

"There are three kind of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Mark Twain

"Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything. 14% of people know that." - Homer Simpson


.

[McCleod]

Originally Posted by gjcab09

Good Idea, I know that on these type of studies it's often difficult to find really current results, though...especially where government agencies are concerned. Still, I'm a father of a daughter. I know how protective I am and can't believe that that kind of thing is going on in 1 out of 3 households with children in this country. And, 0.17% to 33.3% is an unbelievable increase even over such a time frame, add to that, for what it's worth, data from the same source suggesting that incidents of child sexual abuse was declining at that time.

"The comparative annual rate of child victims:
decreased steadily from 15.3 victims per 1,000 children in 1993
to 11.8 victims per 1,000 children in 1999;
then increased to 12.2 per 1,000 children in 2000.
Whether this is a trend cannot be determined until additional data are collected."

Parents out there, or even non-parents who have children in their family, think about the crime...do you actually think that 1 out of the 2 people standing next to you with the same circumstances find it any less offensive or horrifying than you do? There is the occasional pervert out there, and our kids should be taught how to be aware and keep themselves as safe as possible, but don't indoctrinate them that such a huge percentage of American families engage in such horrifying and deviant behavior.

What could be the purpose of this? To what end does an educational institution make such (to my 9 year old data) wildly inaccurate claims?

I think the purpose is to make it easier to raise money. I heard exactly the same "one in three" quote during our company United Way kickoff meeting from an educational director of a local agency supported by United Way. I do not believe it is an accurate statement; and I stated so to several male employees following the meeting. I also do not appreciate how it reflects on the male parent. I recall several years ago when the March of Dimes was quoted as saying that the greatest number of birth defects was caused by husbands/boyfriends beating the female during pregnancy! Don't jump on me, I abhor the abuse of women and children, but let's not make it look like America is totally nuts.

[Stench]

I salute you guys (and gals) with daughters...The Good Lord blessed me with two sons. I think if I had a daughter she'd be locked in the attic until she was at least 30!

I guess programs like this are good, but this is the kind of thing I'd prefer to talk about at home.