Out of Stock on the rise

[Zeabed]

Along with Penzance, PS Balkan Supreme and Presbyterian Mixture, Squadron Leader is one of my top favorite English/Balkan blends. And, along with Penzance, PM, Escudo, SG BBF and several others, SL is currently listed as out-of-stock by some e-tailers. I'm down to five tins of SL but, luckily, I've been able to find some BBF, SL and Penzance listed as available in a couple of online shops and just ordered several tins of all of these. I'm not home free, however, as it's entirely possible that I'll be getting an email in the next few days advising me that one or more of these items are backordered.

Is this stock depletion the result of a hoarding frenzy triggered by the recent legislation, or are there distribution, marketing and/or production problems? This latter possibility suggests itself, particularly considering that the shortage seems to be affecting mostly imported baccies... So what's the rumpus here? Should I start cultivating my own baccie and harvesting camel dung?

[Alpedhuez55]

I know I was getting a ton of emails before SCHIP that made it sound a little worse than it actually ended up being. So I think a lot of people did stock up before the price increase even though the increase was modest, $1.0969 per pound to $2.8311 per pound. While it was a significant increase in taxes, it was not quite as bad as it could have been. RYO Cigarette Tobacco went from $1.0969 per pound to $24.78 per pound. That is a 2200% increase.

So I think there was a little misinformation going on by some retailers who were running big "SCHIP Sales"that actually led to a little hoarding. Plus in addition to the Fed changes, there are some states that have taken the opportunity to do their own tobacco tax increases and restrictions as well, like Washington State banning Imports and several states raising taxes again.

[Zeabed]

Originally Posted by Alpedhuez55

[...] So I think there was a little misinformation going on by some retailers who were running big "SCHIP Sales"that actually led to a little hoarding. Plus in addition to the Fed changes, there are some states that have taken the opportunity to do their own tobacco tax increases and restrictions as well, like Washington State banning Imports and several states raising taxes again.

Ah, the old domino theory ploy...! Missed it by that much. The current dry spell goes beyond the SCHIP, however. For example, Escudo dried up just before July 1. Then came back again (that's when I got my backordered shipment). Now it seems to be on backorder again in several places. I expect this current tax frenzy to lead to a crisis in tobacco distribution, for all tobaccos - and sooner rather than later, what with state taxes riding the coattails of federal initiatives. What seems to be building up is the government version of mass hysteria, complete with lynch mob mentality. What else now?

[afilter]

I noticed the same on my last order SL was not available. Hope this changes.

[SmokinJohnny]

There could be several contributing factors such as the recent hoarding like you say, the time it takes tobacco producers to get orders into hands of etailers, or cig smokers turning to pipe tobacco to get away from outrageous cig prices. The history of pipe smoking is several centuries old and has always been considered a gentle, harmless hobby. It seems today it's being scrutinized to death.

[commonsenseman]

The fact that many retailers are running out of certain blends is, at the least, quite concerning. What does this mean for the future of pipe smoking? We have been turned into the "bad guys" recently. Smoking of all types is frowned upon.
I'm sure there is more than one factor at work here though.

One of the biggest is probably us pipe smokers hoarding tobacco for fear of our favorite blend running out. New state tobacco legislation will only make things worse, & since the FDA is now in charge of tobacco, flavored pipe tobacco could be in serious trouble very soon.

I really feel sorry for pipe tobacco manufacturers, they're really getting screwed these days.

[Alpedhuez55]

Originally Posted by Zeabed

Ah, the old domino theory ploy...! Missed it by that much. The current dry spell goes beyond the SCHIP, however. For example, Escudo dried up just before July 1. Then came back again (that's when I got my backordered shipment). Now it seems to be on backorder again in several places. I expect this current tax frenzy to lead to a crisis in tobacco distribution, for all tobaccos - and sooner rather than later, what with state taxes riding the coattails of federal initiatives. What seems to be building up is the government version of mass hysteria, complete with lynch mob mentality. What else now?

Well, there are other problems with distribution.

Dunhill is lacking US distribution which means people who can no longer get their favorite blend, are buying alternatives. Dunhill did have a good sized market share. So those people are looking to other blends and probably a lot went to some of the Samuel Gawith blends.

Escudo changed distributors from Lane to Villager/Stokkebeye. Hopefully once all the backorders are filled it should be readily available.

And didn't Lane discontinue a lot of things as well? That would effect the bulk market.

I do not know what is going on with Esoterica, but I know I have had issues getting Penzance a couple of times.

But I just think as states raise taxes on tobacco products, just like with cigars, you just get more people moving towards buying online. Those retailers may not have been ready for the increase in orders on the pipe side.

[Zeabed]

Thank you, Al. It is indeed a Gordian Knot of market turbulence.

[Mister Moo]

Originally Posted by Alpedhuez55

Well, there are other problems with distribution.

Dunhill is lacking US distribution which means people who can no longer get their favorite blend, are buying alternatives...

I don't know if that's right or not but it sure sounds right.

[rlaliberty]

just ordered some penzance from pipesandcigars! hope its not out of stock...

[Alpedhuez55]

Originally Posted by Mister Moo

I don't know if that's right or not but it sure sounds right.

Well, I read that a month or two ago on another site. Have not talked with anyone in the industry on it. I think there are a lot of tins in B&Ms, but some of the big Internet Dealers do not have any Dunhill anymore.

But Villager is the distributor for Orlik, who still makes Dunhill for the Euro market. So maybe they will take it over.

[commonsenseman]

Originally Posted by rlaliberty

just ordered some penzance from pipesandcigars! hope its not out of stock...

Just ordered 2 tins from 4noggins..........here's hoping.

[hunter1127]

I agree w/ all listed above. Also our BOTLs and SOTLs in Washington State will no longer be able to buy tobacco on line after 7/26/09 due to new anti legislation passed in Jan. 09. Know many are trying to stock up before then. When will all the anti BS end!!!! Where is our freedom????

[sounds7]

esoterica tobacciana is no longer being distributed by Butera from what I was told. The new distributer is not with it and orders get behind.

[Mad Hatter]

In addition to all the panic buying I think the end of the tobacco year is drawing close and stocks have been running low the last few years at this time even before SCHIP. Hey, we're a growing minority!