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Fresh50 · 11-27-2007, 12:10 PM

Dump the Cuban Embargo
by Matthew Cooper
December 2007 Issue
Why it never worked and why we should end it.

TWILIGHT Fidel Castro (shown here in 1994) is coming to the end of his reign. Now, does the U.S. engage Cuba or ignore it?
Photograph by: Gerard Rancinan

The American embargo of Cuba is one of those things that most of the political elite in Washington privately acknowledge as a failure. Publicly, they defend it because of fears that the Cuban American community, famously concentrated in presidentially pivotal Florida, will beat the tar out of them. In October, President Bush reiterated his commitment to it in a speech to Cuban dissidents, and it's no wonder that none of the leading presidential candidates has called for abolishing the embargo, initiated in 1960 as Fidel Castro's regime began confiscating U.S. assets. During the past 47 years, the embargo has evolved into a slew of restrictions on travel and trade (see slideshow), all designed to bring down Castro. And it's worked so well!
It's time to end the embargo—unilaterally and completely. The policy has been useless as a tool for cudgeling Castro, and it is hindering opportunities for American industries from travel to banking to agriculture, which is why there's no shortage of U.S. business groups lobbying to ease it. Far from hurting the deplorable Communist regime, the embargo has only given Castro an excuse to rail against Uncle Sam, both to his own people and to the world. Every year, Cuba asks the United Nations for a vote lifting the embargo. What happens? We usually end up with a couple of superpowers like Palau and the Marshall Islands standing with us. Last year, the vote was 183 to 4. The embargo makes us look like an arrogant bully.
Sure, in the early days of the cold war, we persuaded other countries to help us isolate Castro by severing trade ties with him. But in the ensuing years, they've all fallen away. That's why you can buy and smoke a fine Habana Cohiba pretty much anywhere but in the U.S. Sanctions are hard enough to enforce when the world agrees on them, as was the case with Saddam Hussein's Iraq. With Cuba, it's an embargo of one, which is like a lone guy in Times Square on New Year's Eve grumpily refusing to put on a party hat.
While we grouse, the world sells. Italian telecoms, French hotels, and Korean automakers are more than happy to trade with an island 90 miles off our shores. Of course, Cuba is not a huge market: The island is the size of Pennsylvania, but its population is only 11 million and its G.D.P. a mere $46 billion. By comparison, Vietnam, the last Communist country with which we ended a dubious embargo, is 85 million strong, with a G.D.P. of $262 billion. Selling to Cuba wouldn't slash our trade deficit, but it wouldn't hurt us either.
Aside from hindering American business, the policy also keeps us from having any political influence over the country, says my old friend Julia Sweig, who is the foremost Cuba expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. She's been to Cuba nearly 30 times and has escorted the likes of the Blackstone Group's Pete Peterson to meet with Castro. Reading her work and talking with her shaped my thinking for this piece. "We're shooting ourselves in the foot," she says near her Dupont Circle .
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muziq · 11-27-2007, 12:34 PM

The only interesting observation I noted in that article was on the 2nd page:

It'll take a more dramatic example of the embargo's idiocy to change things—maybe if, say, Citgo, a subsidiary of Venezuela's state-owned oil company (ultimately controlled by Hugo Chávez, a Castro pal), which has already obtained rights to drill in Cuba's offshore reserves, discovers that those reserves are oil-rich.

That would be a very interesting turn-of-events: the lobbying power of big oil versus the lobby power of the Cuban Expat community.
Anadarko, Devon, and BP are going further and further out into the Gulf with their drilling leases; it's a matter of time before the technology enables them to do truly cost-effective deep-water drilling, pushing the envelope further east towards shallower fields that might be rich, lower-hanging fruit around Cuba.

The inside scoop on that round of deal-making with legislators would probably make for a great political thriller flick!

Lorglath · 11-27-2007, 12:38 PM

What would need to happen in order for this damned ban to be lifted? I mean petitions don't work, sit ins, and public protest, even if peaceful, end up with the police or military getting involved... what can we do?!

cbsmokin · 11-27-2007, 01:04 PM

It's funny that you post this. Did anyone else read about trying to make Cuba a state yesterday on MSN? If this ever happens I would love to visit Cuba before it takes place. It will be forever changed.

Marlboro Cigars · 11-27-2007, 06:49 PM

Thanks for the article.

carbonbased_al · 11-28-2007, 07:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cbsmokin

It's funny that you post this. Did anyone else read about trying to make Cuba a state yesterday on MSN? If this ever happens I would love to visit Cuba before it takes place. It will be forever changed.

I'm sure Cuba will be right behind Puerto Rico concerning statehood

DoctaJ · 11-28-2007, 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lorglath

What would need to happen in order for this damned ban to be lifted? I mean petitions don't work, sit ins, and public protest, even if peaceful, end up with the police or military getting involved... what can we do?!

Until Castro dies, I don't expect the embargo to be lifted. This fact has more to do with the stubbornness of the American government and, as the article mentioned, the Cuban-American vote. Castro's brother, who is next in line, has openly stated he wants to have more open borders. I also wouldn't be surprised if there was an internal peaceful military takeover of Cuba after Castro dies.

The thought that I have is how the cigar industry will look after Cuba's borders are open. The market would change dramatically I would think with the now legal influx of Cuban cigars to the American market.

bigr8131963 · 11-28-2007, 09:33 PM

I say do it..

icehog3 · 11-28-2007, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigr8131963

I say do it..

OK, I will have it dumped tomorrow.

vstrommark · 11-28-2007, 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DoctaJ

Until Castro dies, I don't expect the embargo to be lifted. This fact has more to do with the stubbornness of the American government and, as the article mentioned, the Cuban-American vote. Castro's brother, who is next in line, has openly stated he wants to have more open borders. I also wouldn't be surprised if there was an internal peaceful military takeover of Cuba after Castro dies.

The thought that I have is how the cigar industry will look after Cuba's borders are open. The market would change dramatically I would think with the now legal influx of Cuban cigars to the American market.

very well said. My opinion is that the policy isn't about Cuba and is more about appeasement and Fidel Castro. No comment on the maturity of that policy.